[h=1]How the USMNT advances[/h][h=3]A game plan for Klinsmann and Co. to earn a win or draw versus Germany[/h]
Despite a heartbreaking 2-2 draw against Portugal on Sunday, the United States enters its final group stage match with a great chance to secure a place in the round of 16 for the second consecutive World Cup (ESPN's Soccer Power Index gives them a 75.8 percent chance of advancing). A draw or a win against Germany would clinch a spot for the U.S., although they could still get through with a loss (by winning goal differential). However, earning a result against a German team that is widely regarded as one of the strongest in the tournament won't be easy.
Germany is overstocked with talented attacking midfielders, and the core of manager Joachim Low's 23-man roster scored a UEFA-high 36 goals throughout World Cup qualifying. The team is also anchored by strong defensive presences such as captain Philipp Lahm and central defenders Mats Hummels and Per Mertesacker to keep opponents from creating scoring opportunities.
In response, the U.S. will be tasked with collectively defending in a manner that keeps Germany's attack stalled in low-risk areas of the field, while also getting forward frequently enough that it can force those attacking playmakers to concentrate more on their defensive responsibilities. Here are the keys to the U.S. earning a victory against Germany, along with a look at contingency plans if the game is tied in the later stages.
Continue including Fabian Johnson in the attack
Germany opened the tournament with a very strong performance against Portugal, but it showed weaknesses in its 2-2 draw with Ghana that the U.S. will look to exploit. One of those weaknesses lies in the left side of Germany's defense, where converted Schalke center back Benedikt Howedes has struggled adjusting to his new role.
This position was a concern for Germany coming into the World Cup, and Ghana was able to create six of its 12 total chances against Germany from the right side. Fortunately for the U.S., its game against Portugal practically served as a test run in how to exploit the deficiencies of an opponent's left side, and as the heat maps below show, Johnson should be encouraged by the amount of damage that Ghana right back Harrison Afful was able to inflict against Germany's back line.
ESPN Stats & InformationHeat map of Fabian Johnson's touches against Portugal, left, and Harrison Afful's touches (Ghana) against Germany, right.
Afful recorded a team-high 81 total touches against Germany (compared to Johnson's 49 against Portugal), and the Ghanian defender was also able to create two chances and record an assist while attacking down the right side.
Howedes isn't a natural left back, and so it's probably in U.S. manager Jurgen Klinsmann's best interest to repeat the 4-5-1 formation that he used against Portugal in an effort to confuse the German defender with a mix of overlapping runs from Johnson along with attacking runs from players such as Clint Dempsey, Graham Zusi and Alejandro Bedoya. Similar to Portugal, the initial lack of interest in defending from a right-sided striker in Germany's 4-3-3 formation (likely Mario Gotze) will not help Howedes, and the productive partnership that Johnson developed with Jermaine Jones in getting forward for the U.S. will again be critical to the team's overall success.
Control Germany's attack from out wide
Germany has evolved into a team that doesn't use a true target striker, and as a result lacks an established central presence in its attack. In fact, all three of the forwards that Low uses in his 4-3-3 formation could be classified as midfielders, with creative options like Arsenal's Mesut Ozil and Bayern Munich's Gotze flanking Thomas Muller along the team's forward line.
This setup of midfield talent in a more advanced role up the field leads to players like Ozil and Gotze drifting in and out of wide positions to receive the ball. Each player is most dangerous when facing forward and being able to see behind the opponent's back line, and that viewpoint is not as easy to establish with a starting point so high up the field.
ESPN Stats & InformationHeat map of Germany's touches in attacking third in 2014 World Cup. Red indicates increased frequency.
As a result, in the attacking half, Germany spends just 23.7 percent of its possessions in the central third of the field. The team prefers to establish its attack in wider positions where it is often easier to turn and face its opponents, and from there the creative midfielders look to get into central scoring areas through a mix of short passing combinations and delayed penetrating runs through the heart of the opposing defense.
Even though Germany establishes itself in wide positions of the attack, the team has averaged just 16.5 cross attempts per game in World Cup play (ranking 22nd out of 32 teams), which confirms how much more comfortable these talented attackers are when able to face the defense and combine with each other to work around defenders. In other words, the attack still comes through the middle.
To combat this, the U.S. must have a strong central presence that closes these central lanes, and from there it can focus on pressing Germany in those wide positions to start forcing turnovers. This involves repeat strong performances from Jones and Kyle Beckerman in central midfield, along with more awareness from central defenders Geoff Cameron and Matt Besler in tracking Germany's attacking runs. The latter pair will likely see Muller directly in front of them in one instance, and then suddenly out wide as another attacker looks to break through centrally. It will be vital for both Cameron and Besler to communicate with the entire back line to make sure there are no gaps for Germany's attacking midfielders to exploit.
Critical adjustments if a result is in reach
The U.S. will also be keeping an eye on the Ghana-Portugal matchup being played simultaneously, as there are a number of scenarios between the two games that could result in the Americans advancing.
Klinsmann would obviously prefer to pull players back and do extra defending if the U.S. is winning or tied in the second half. But this does not guarantee success, as a defensive shell will allow Germany's defenders to push farther up into the attack, and from there the surplus of midfield talent will have more options to work with as it puts continuous pressure on the U.S. defense.
This is why a reserve player such as Chris Wondolowski has a strong chance of appearing at or near the hour mark of the game, as he not only has the ability to chase down German defenders and make it difficult for them to establish an attack, but also make deep runs into the German defensive half that will serve as an outlet when the U.S. regains possession.
A near positive outcome at the end of the game could also result in the introduction of a player like Mix Diskerud, someone who can both defend and distribute successfully in central midfield. He would likely come on for a wide midfielder and push either Jones or Beckerman out wide to pressure Germany's attackers. Diskerud's presence could also drop Michael Bradley deeper into central midfield to assist with defending, and together the combination of holding midfielders would make an earlier 4-2-3-1 formation look more like a 4-3-2-1 formation that Germany would have to navigate past.
Outlook
Unlike its game against Portugal, the U.S. has few areas of the German lineup it can exploit. However, as Ghana proved Saturday, the right side of the German attack is one area where opponents can find success. The fact the U.S. is not in a must-win position means that it can spend extra time focusing on how it will trap Germany's attackers before they get into dangerous central positions. In the end, being able to pressure Germany's attacking players in wide positions before they can advance centrally will be critical for the U.S., along with its own ability to get forward in those wide areas of its own attack.
Given the strong position both teams are in, a draw seems like the most likely outcome and a fair one given how well both teams have played so far. It's difficult to imagine a one-sided result for either team that would end up shifting the fate of Group G.
Despite a heartbreaking 2-2 draw against Portugal on Sunday, the United States enters its final group stage match with a great chance to secure a place in the round of 16 for the second consecutive World Cup (ESPN's Soccer Power Index gives them a 75.8 percent chance of advancing). A draw or a win against Germany would clinch a spot for the U.S., although they could still get through with a loss (by winning goal differential). However, earning a result against a German team that is widely regarded as one of the strongest in the tournament won't be easy.
Germany is overstocked with talented attacking midfielders, and the core of manager Joachim Low's 23-man roster scored a UEFA-high 36 goals throughout World Cup qualifying. The team is also anchored by strong defensive presences such as captain Philipp Lahm and central defenders Mats Hummels and Per Mertesacker to keep opponents from creating scoring opportunities.
In response, the U.S. will be tasked with collectively defending in a manner that keeps Germany's attack stalled in low-risk areas of the field, while also getting forward frequently enough that it can force those attacking playmakers to concentrate more on their defensive responsibilities. Here are the keys to the U.S. earning a victory against Germany, along with a look at contingency plans if the game is tied in the later stages.
Continue including Fabian Johnson in the attack
Germany opened the tournament with a very strong performance against Portugal, but it showed weaknesses in its 2-2 draw with Ghana that the U.S. will look to exploit. One of those weaknesses lies in the left side of Germany's defense, where converted Schalke center back Benedikt Howedes has struggled adjusting to his new role.
This position was a concern for Germany coming into the World Cup, and Ghana was able to create six of its 12 total chances against Germany from the right side. Fortunately for the U.S., its game against Portugal practically served as a test run in how to exploit the deficiencies of an opponent's left side, and as the heat maps below show, Johnson should be encouraged by the amount of damage that Ghana right back Harrison Afful was able to inflict against Germany's back line.
ESPN Stats & InformationHeat map of Fabian Johnson's touches against Portugal, left, and Harrison Afful's touches (Ghana) against Germany, right.
Afful recorded a team-high 81 total touches against Germany (compared to Johnson's 49 against Portugal), and the Ghanian defender was also able to create two chances and record an assist while attacking down the right side.
Howedes isn't a natural left back, and so it's probably in U.S. manager Jurgen Klinsmann's best interest to repeat the 4-5-1 formation that he used against Portugal in an effort to confuse the German defender with a mix of overlapping runs from Johnson along with attacking runs from players such as Clint Dempsey, Graham Zusi and Alejandro Bedoya. Similar to Portugal, the initial lack of interest in defending from a right-sided striker in Germany's 4-3-3 formation (likely Mario Gotze) will not help Howedes, and the productive partnership that Johnson developed with Jermaine Jones in getting forward for the U.S. will again be critical to the team's overall success.
Control Germany's attack from out wide
Germany has evolved into a team that doesn't use a true target striker, and as a result lacks an established central presence in its attack. In fact, all three of the forwards that Low uses in his 4-3-3 formation could be classified as midfielders, with creative options like Arsenal's Mesut Ozil and Bayern Munich's Gotze flanking Thomas Muller along the team's forward line.
This setup of midfield talent in a more advanced role up the field leads to players like Ozil and Gotze drifting in and out of wide positions to receive the ball. Each player is most dangerous when facing forward and being able to see behind the opponent's back line, and that viewpoint is not as easy to establish with a starting point so high up the field.
As a result, in the attacking half, Germany spends just 23.7 percent of its possessions in the central third of the field. The team prefers to establish its attack in wider positions where it is often easier to turn and face its opponents, and from there the creative midfielders look to get into central scoring areas through a mix of short passing combinations and delayed penetrating runs through the heart of the opposing defense.
Even though Germany establishes itself in wide positions of the attack, the team has averaged just 16.5 cross attempts per game in World Cup play (ranking 22nd out of 32 teams), which confirms how much more comfortable these talented attackers are when able to face the defense and combine with each other to work around defenders. In other words, the attack still comes through the middle.
To combat this, the U.S. must have a strong central presence that closes these central lanes, and from there it can focus on pressing Germany in those wide positions to start forcing turnovers. This involves repeat strong performances from Jones and Kyle Beckerman in central midfield, along with more awareness from central defenders Geoff Cameron and Matt Besler in tracking Germany's attacking runs. The latter pair will likely see Muller directly in front of them in one instance, and then suddenly out wide as another attacker looks to break through centrally. It will be vital for both Cameron and Besler to communicate with the entire back line to make sure there are no gaps for Germany's attacking midfielders to exploit.
Critical adjustments if a result is in reach
The U.S. will also be keeping an eye on the Ghana-Portugal matchup being played simultaneously, as there are a number of scenarios between the two games that could result in the Americans advancing.
Klinsmann would obviously prefer to pull players back and do extra defending if the U.S. is winning or tied in the second half. But this does not guarantee success, as a defensive shell will allow Germany's defenders to push farther up into the attack, and from there the surplus of midfield talent will have more options to work with as it puts continuous pressure on the U.S. defense.
This is why a reserve player such as Chris Wondolowski has a strong chance of appearing at or near the hour mark of the game, as he not only has the ability to chase down German defenders and make it difficult for them to establish an attack, but also make deep runs into the German defensive half that will serve as an outlet when the U.S. regains possession.
A near positive outcome at the end of the game could also result in the introduction of a player like Mix Diskerud, someone who can both defend and distribute successfully in central midfield. He would likely come on for a wide midfielder and push either Jones or Beckerman out wide to pressure Germany's attackers. Diskerud's presence could also drop Michael Bradley deeper into central midfield to assist with defending, and together the combination of holding midfielders would make an earlier 4-2-3-1 formation look more like a 4-3-2-1 formation that Germany would have to navigate past.
Outlook
Unlike its game against Portugal, the U.S. has few areas of the German lineup it can exploit. However, as Ghana proved Saturday, the right side of the German attack is one area where opponents can find success. The fact the U.S. is not in a must-win position means that it can spend extra time focusing on how it will trap Germany's attackers before they get into dangerous central positions. In the end, being able to pressure Germany's attacking players in wide positions before they can advance centrally will be critical for the U.S., along with its own ability to get forward in those wide areas of its own attack.
Given the strong position both teams are in, a draw seems like the most likely outcome and a fair one given how well both teams have played so far. It's difficult to imagine a one-sided result for either team that would end up shifting the fate of Group G.
